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Advice for the intermediate Settlers of Catan player continues.

As you’re learning the game, and playing against equally novice players, it’s often enough to grasp how the various mechanics work, and to spend your cards as you get them on whatever you can afford, hoping to cross the finish line first. As you get better, this is not enough. As in any game, you must keep the goal in mind and aim strictly for that.

The goal of Catan is to get 10 points first. Not to get a lot of points, not to get more points than anyone else, not to need just one more turn to get 10 points, not to develop a productive economy, but to get 10 points first. Big two-point bonuses like the longest road and largest army are nice, but they’re also expensive. If chasing them delays your progress to 10—especially if you’re already at 9 and don’t need both points—enough that someone else wins, then they are worthless. A lot of cities sure are pretty, especially if they sit on productive hexes, but if someone else gets to 10 first, they’re worthless. If you are not collecting and spending resources to help reach 10 points, or to deny a rival’s efforts to do the same, you are not playing to win. If Bob is about to win, then trading with him is stupid, even if it gets you the goods you would need to reach 10 if you were allowed another turn.

This does not mean you should grab points as quickly as possible. No! Getting to 5 points, or even to 9 points, quickly might improve your odds, if they come from cities and villages that can produce goods to get you the rest of the way to 10, but they are not the goal.

What it does mean is that you should examine the board and plan where those 10 points are going to come from, and what you’ll need to get there. Usually that includes space for four to six buildings. Got a lot of ore and wheat? Maybe you can get by with four locations: four cities and enough cards to earn you the largest army or two VP cards. Is the board thick with hills and forests? Better move quick to expand into the space you need before someone else gets there, and prepare for sharp competition over the longest road. Are the initial villages densely packed (two intersections from one another), or sparsely packed (three or more intersections from one another)? That will affect how aggressively you will need to claim territory.

With a long look over the board and a plan in mind, you can start building toward those goals without wasting time and resources on anything that does not further them. Don’t try to build the largest army if someone else has all the sheep and ore. Don’t try to build the longest road if your villages are hopelessly cut off from one another, pinched between rivals. Conversely, if you do have a good chance at these, stake an early claim; intimidate other players form challenging your lead, so you don’t have to continue pouring resources into a bidding war.

Define your plan and stick to it. Ideally, you should have some idea of what order you’ll do things, as well as your final design, e.g., start with villages here and here, expand to this third space to get some ore income, expand here and here while collecting ore to build a city here, and so on. That helps to keep on track. But don’t go overboard in sticking to a rigid plan. If you happen to get a windfall of bricks through a lucky string of 3’s, go ahead and stretch a road out to a location you didn’t think you could reach, and fill in your original planned location later (presuming it isn’t vulnerable to rival expansion). If your first two draws are VP cards, maybe you can abandon your aspirations for the largest army altogether.

There’s another reason to stay flexible. It’s possible that, as the game develops, your plan will become untenable. Maybe some jerk just got lucky and built four roads, cutting off your likely path of expansion, or the player with all the wheat just won’t trade it with you at any price. That’s a bad situation to be in, but take a deep breath, reevaluate the board, and figure out where your 10 points are going to come from now. Be honest with yourself. If your only chance is through some lucky draws from the development card deck, better start buying some. If you need an extra point from a village you didn’t plan to build, better start building it, even if it’s on the intersection of wasteland, a portless sea, and meadows that produce wool on a 2. Coming up short with 8 or 9 points because you couldn’t adapt to changing circumstances is stupid.

Turn that strategic eye towards your fellow players, too. They need 10 points as badly as you do. Knowing where those points will come from is a huge advantage in foiling their plans. Remember: the goal is to get 10 points first, and slowing their efforts is almost as good as speeding up your own.

But whatever it takes, get those ten points. First.